Fall turnover, lake by lake: 5 turning, 2 done, 15 close

Fall turnover does not happen to every lake on the same day. It runs south from the first cold snaps, and deep lakes hold out longest. We estimate where each of the 90 lakes with a fresh temperature reading stands from its surface temperature, its depth, its size and how far north it sits. It is an estimate, not a measurement down the water column, so use the signs on the water (dull colour, debris, a dead bite) to confirm it.

This week: 5 lakes look to be mixing right now, 2 are already mixed from top to bottom, 15 are a cold spell away, 53 are still firmly layered and 15 are too shallow to layer at all.

1. 1
   

   Sam Rayburn Reservoir, TX

   Turning over now 65°F turning over now

   65°F at the surface on a lake about 80 ft deep, with the warm layer down to about 75 ft by our estimate: the lake is mixing to the bottom about now. Expect dull water and a slow week, then the fall feed. At 65°F, largemouth bass are the bet here. They chase baitfish into creeks and coves. An upper arm in 24 to 28 ft is the place to begin; try small jig or minnow under a float. The lake sits 8.7 ft below its usual level, so fish crowd onto fewer points and short ramps may not reach the water. Thursday rates good for the bite.

   Photo: Ricraider, CC BY-SA 3.0

2. 2

   Lake Fork, TX

   Turning over now 59°F turning over now

   59°F at the surface on a lake about 70 ft deep, with the warm layer down to about 65 ft by our estimate: the lake is mixing to the bottom about now. Expect dull water and a slow week, then the fall feed. At 59°F, largemouth bass are the bet here. Start at a wind-blown bank in 4 to 16 ft; try spinnerbait or crankbait along the edge. The lake sits 3.1 ft below its usual level, so fish crowd onto fewer points and short ramps may not reach the water. Thursday rates good for the bite.

3. 3
   

   Ross Barnett Reservoir, MS

   Turning over now 65°F turning over now

   65°F at the surface on a lake about 60 ft deep, with the warm layer down to about 50 ft by our estimate: the lake is mixing to the bottom about now. Expect dull water and a slow week, then the fall feed. At 65°F, crappie are the bet here. Brush piles and docks in 8 to 15 ft. Start at a wind-blown bank; try spinnerbait or crankbait along the edge. Plan to cover water: the lake spreads over about 33,300 acres at full pool. Saturday rates good for the bite.

   Photo: Eskimo.the, CC BY 3.0

4. 4

   Lake Eufaula, OK

   Turning over now 62°F turning over now

   62°F at the surface on a lake about 85 ft deep, with the warm layer down to about 70 ft by our estimate: the lake is mixing to the bottom about now. Expect dull water and a slow week, then the fall feed. The water is 62°F and largemouth bass are feeding. Start at an upper arm in 48 to 52 ft; try small jig or minnow under a float. The lake sits 2.7 ft below its usual level, so fish crowd onto fewer points and short ramps may not reach the water. Thursday rates good for the bite.

5. 5
   

   Lake Monroe, IN

   Turning over now 53°F turning over now

   53°F at the surface on a lake about 60 ft deep, with the warm layer down to about 50 ft by our estimate: the lake is mixing to the bottom about now. Expect dull water and a slow week, then the fall feed. The water is 53°F; expect to work for bites. A wind-blown bank in 4 to 16 ft is the place to begin; try small swimbait or spinner, follow the birds. It is a big piece of water: about 10,800 acres at full pool. Friday rates good for the bite.

   Photo: Nyttend (public domain)

6. 6
   

   Lake Hopatcong, NJ

   Warm layer deepening 48°F warm layer deepening

   48°F at the surface; the warm layer reaches about 40 ft of roughly 50 ft by our estimate. A week or two of cold nights should finish the job. 48°F at the surface puts muskie first in line. Big baits along weed edges and breaks. A wind-blown bank in 10 to 24 ft is the place to begin; try spoon or spinnerbait on the weed edge. At about 2,600 acres, it is easy to cover in a morning. Saturday rates good for the bite.

   Photo: Zeete, CC BY-SA 4.0

7. 7
   

   Lake Marion, SC

   Warm layer deepening 66°F warm layer deepening

   66°F at the surface; the warm layer reaches about 60 ft of roughly 75 ft by our estimate. A week or two of cold nights should finish the job. The water is 66°F and catfish are active. Evenings and nights are best. Start at a wind-blown bank; try swimbait or live shad where bait is. It is a big piece of water: about 110,000 acres at full pool. Friday rates good for the bite.

   Photo: RealNordyNed, CC BY-SA 4.0

8. 8

   Chickamauga Lake, TN

   Warm layer deepening 62°F warm layer deepening

   62°F at the surface; the warm layer reaches about 50 ft of roughly 70 ft by our estimate. A week or two of cold nights should finish the job. 62°F at the surface puts largemouth bass first in line. Start at a wind-blown bank in 4 to 16 ft; try small swimbait or spinner, follow the birds. Plan to cover water: the lake spreads over about 36,200 acres at full pool. Thursday rates good for the bite.

Every lake by stage

Turning lakes are the ones to approach with patience; mixed lakes are where the fall feed is on; layered lakes still fish like late summer, with fish above the warm layer's floor.

Stage	Lakes	For example
Turning over now	5	Sam Rayburn Reservoir, Lake Fork, Ross Barnett Reservoir and Lake Eufaula
Mixed top to bottom	2	Lake Pend Oreille and Lake Vermilion
Warm layer deepening	15	Lake Hopatcong, Lake Marion, Chickamauga Lake and Lewisville Lake
Still layered	53	Candlewood Lake, Lake Wylie, Lake Anna and Lake Gaston
Too shallow to layer	15	Lake Okeechobee, Lake Tohopekaliga, Lake Kissimmee and Lake Seminole

Surface temperature on the list

Latest clear reading for each lake on the list, warmest first.

How we judge it

Deep water in a lake holds about the temperature it had in late winter, colder the farther north the lake sits. The warm top layer's depth depends on the size of the lake (bigger lakes, longer wind runs, deeper warm layers). As the surface cools in the fall the warm layer deepens; when it reaches about four fifths of the lake's depth we call the lake turning, and when the surface is within a few degrees of the deep water we call it mixed. Lakes shallower than the warm layer never form stable layers and mix with every strong wind.

Every figure here comes from the surface reading and the lake's published depth, so a lake with an unusual shape or a big cold inflow can be ahead of or behind the estimate.

Before you go

On a turning lake, fish the upper end and creek arms, downsize and keep moving. On a mixed lake, follow the bait onto flats and points. Either way the water is cooling fast: wear the life jacket, and check the lake page the morning you go.

Lake by lake

• Sam Rayburn Reservoir65°FClear water, 65°F water, level steady, 9 ft below normal, calm this morning.
• Lake Fork59°FSome algae possible, 59°F water, level steady, 3 ft below normal, calm this morning.
• Ross Barnett Reservoir65°FAlgae likely, 65°F water, level steady, 1 ft below normal, windy Thursday (15 mph NW).
• Lake Eufaula62°FSlightly murky, 62°F water, level falling, 3 ft below normal, calm this morning.
• Lake Monroe53°FSlightly murky, 53°F water, level steady, near normal, calm this morning.
• Lake Hopatcong48°FAlgae likely, 48°F water, level steady, near normal, calm Saturday morning.
• Lake Marion66°FClear water, 66°F water, level steady, near normal, windy Thursday (17 mph W).
• Chickamauga Lake62°FClear water, 62°F water, windy Thursday (15 mph W).